We examine return predictability with machine learning in 46 international stock markets. We calculate 148 stock characteristics and use them to feed a repertoire of different models. The algorithms extract predictability mainly from simple, yet popular, factor types—such as momentum,...

Stock market returns are driven by political events. Investors adjust their behavior and reallocate their investments with respect to them. This study examines the effects of Myanmar’s 2020 general election and 2021 military coup on the Yangon Stock Exchange’s (YSX) returns. Myanmar is one...

We show that the stock market pricing the presidential margin of victory in a nonlinear concave fashion, with a higher price for medium than slight or crushing victories. We conjecture that the margin of victory reflects president confidence and the ability to execute policies. A small margin...

In questioning Kamstra, Kramer, and Levi's (2003) finding of an economically and statistically significant seasonal affective disorder (SAD) effect, Kelly and Meschke (2010) make errors of commission and omission. They misrepresent their empirical results, claiming that the SAD effect arises due...

High-frequency trading has become a dominant force in the U.S. capital market, accounting for over 70% of dollar trading volume. This study examines the implication of high-frequency trading for stock price volatility and price discovery. I find that high-frequency trading is positively...

This paper provides an explanation of investing in stock market anomalies in an expected utility paradigm. Classical selection rules fail to provide a preference for high expected return portfolios. The paper utilizes the almost dominance rules to examine the practice of investing in size,...

This paper provides an explanation of investing in stock market anomalies in an expected utility paradigm. Classical selection rules fail to provide a preference for high expected return portfolios. The paper utilizes the almost dominance rules to examine the practice of investing in size,...

Siegel (2014), Shilling (2015) and others rely on the work of Alfred C. Cowles to capture US stock market returns before 1926. Cowles in turn relied on Frederick Macaulay's work for data on railroad stocks during this era. This study attempts to re-construct Cowles' index from the ground up, by...

This study investigated the linkage between the effects of an inverted yield curve and the performance of small, mid, and big cap stocks for the period 2005-2007. The comparative performance of small, mid and big cap stocks during the period was examined. In general, there seemed no significant...

This paper examines the information content of two different measures of aggregate equity-market order flow for future macro fundamentals and expected stock market returns. The first measure, the cross-sectional average of individual stock order flows, predicts future growth rates for industrial...