We show that when one takes into account the global equilibrium ramifications of an unwinding of the US current account deficit, currently estimated at 5.4% of GDP, the potential collapse of the dollar becomes considerably larger (more than 50% larger) than our previous estimates (Obstfeld and...

This paper uses a data set of over two hundred years of sovereign debt, banking and inflation crises to explore the question of how long it takes a country to ?graduate? from the typical pattern of serial crisis that most emerging markets experience. We find that for default and inflation...

Intro -- Contents -- Editorial -- Abstracts -- 1 Assessing Structural VARs -- 2 Volatility and Dispersion in Business Growth Rates: Publicly Traded versus Privately Held Firms -- 3 Do Taxes Explain European Employment? Indivisible Labor, Human Capital, Lotteries, and Savings -- 4 Fluctuating...

Intro -- Contents -- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. A BRIEF OVERVIEW OF THEORY -- III. MEASURING FINANCIAL OPENNESS -- IV. PATTERNS OF FINANCIAL GLOBALIZATION -- V. MACROECONOMIC EVIDENCE ON EFFECTS OF FINANCIAL GLOBALIZATION -- VI. HOW DOES THE COMPOSITION OF CAPITAL FLOWS MATTER?...

This paper describes the evolution of ideas to apply bankruptcy reorganization principles to sovereign debt crises. Our focus is on policy proposals between the late 1970s and Anne Krueger''s (2001) proposed ""Sovereign Debt-Restructuring Mechanism,"" with brief reference to the economics...

Using recent advances in the classification of exchange rate regimes, this paper finds no support for the popular bipolar view that countries will tend over time to move to the polar extremes of free float or rigid peg. Rather, intermediate regimes have shown remarkable durability. The analysis...

The literature on the benefits and costs of financial globalization for developing countries has exploded in recent years, but along many disparate channels and with a variety of apparently conflicting results. For instance, there is still little robust evidence of the growth benefits of broad...

This study provides a candid, systematic, and critical review of recent evidence on this complex subject. Based on a review of the literature and some new empirical evidence, it finds that (1) in spite of an apparently strong theoretical presumption, it is difficult to detect a strong and robust...