Headline inflation in the euro area jumped to more than three percent in the summer after years of relatively low … inflation rates well below the target of close to but below two percent set by the ECB until July 2021. One of the main reasons … for the rise in inflation is the increase in energy prices since the beginning of 2021. However, there are further …

In this paper, we explore the degree of anchoring of consumers' individual long-run inflation expectations utilizing …-run inflation expectations became more anchored over the last decades, as the degree of co-movement between short- and long … seems that older cohorts, who experienced the high inflation period of the 1970s, remain less anchored in their long …

This paper analyses the distribution of long-term inflation expectations in the euro area using individual density …

inflation. Based on a range of panel regressions, we find that accurate perceptions of recent price changes are an important … determinant of the accuracy of next-year inflation expectations. The realism of inflation perceptions is, in turn, related to the … frequent newspaper usage does not necessarily reduce errors in inflation perceptions. …

This article measures the degree of potential de-anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area vis-à-vis the … inflation objective of the European Central Bank (ECB). A no-arbitrage term structure model that allows for a time-varying long …-term mean of inflation expectations, π୲ ∗, is applied to inflation-linked swap (ILS) rates, while taking into account survey …

Empirical evidence suggests consumers rely on their shopping experiences to form beliefs about inflation. In other …. Learning by shopping anchors households' beliefs about inflation to its past, causing disagreement with firms over the value of … inflation, increases the degree of anchoring of households' inflation expectations, and flattens the slope of the Phillips curve …

structure reflects changing expectations of future yields and inflation. This analysis shows that the presence of time … less than five years. By contrast, variations in inflation expected over the next two to three years are very accurately … term structures closely track changing expectations regarding future nominal and real yields but not future inflation …

inflation risk. We calculate the term structure of inflation uncertainty in New Keynesian models when the monetary authority … achieves equilibria with substantially lower long-run inflation risk. With either sticky prices or sticky wages, a price path … target reduces the variance of inflation by an order of magnitude more than it increases the variability of the output gap …

future inflation changes. The unobserved regime changes are revealed ex ante (3 - 4 months ahead) with respect to observed … spreads on future inflation changes, but the monetary policy regime itself explains changes in the future inflation rates …

We exploit a hidden Markov model where inflation is determined by government deficits financed through money creation … and/or by destabilizing expectations dynamics (expectations can potentially divorce inflation from fundamentals). The … baseline model, proposed by Sargent et al. (2009), is used to analyze the interaction between fiscal deficits, inflation …