Narrow search
Showing 1 - 10 of 517,844
Cover Image
Monetary aggregates to improve early output gap estimates in the euro area -- an empirical assessment
Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens - 2014
Output gap estimates at the current edge are subject to severe revisions. This study analyzes whether monetary aggregates can be used to improve the reliability of early output gap estimates as proposed by several theoretical models. A real-time experiment shows that real M1 can improve output...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010248220
Cover Image
Indicator-based estimates of the output gap in the euro area
Weiske, Sebastian - 2019
The output gap is a key variable of business cycle analysis and policy. Obtaining reliable estimates for it, is very difficult, though. Most real-time estimates are frequently revised over time. The idea of this paper is to use various indicators, for example from business surveys, that (i) were...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012309596
Cover Image
Indicator-based estimates of the output gap in the euro area
Weiske, Sebastian - 2018
The output gap is a key variable of business cycle analysis and policy. Obtaining reliable estimates for it, is very difficult, though. Most real-time estimates are frequently revised over time. The idea of this paper is to use various indicators, for example from business surveys, that (i) were...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011928277
Cover Image
An output gap measure for the euro area : exploiting country-level and cross-sectional data heterogeneity
Manuel, González-Astudillo, - 2018
trend. The estimation of the model preferred by the data indicates that, because of negative shocks to trend output during …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011932248
Cover Image
The Information Content of Real-Time Output Gap Estimates : An Application to the Euro Area
Rünstler, Gerhard - 2021
The paper investigates real-time output gap estimates for the euro area obtained from various unobserved components (UOC) models. Based on a state space modelling framework, three criteria are used to evaluate real-time estimates, i.e. standard errors, unbiasedness and conditional inflation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013320195
Cover Image
Mind the Output Gap : The Disconnect of Growth and Inflation During Recessions and Convex Phillips Curves in the Euro Area
Gross, Marco - 2017
We develop a theoretical model that features a business cycle-dependent relation between output, price inflation and inflation expectations, augmenting the model by Svensson (1997) with a nonlinear Phillips curve that reflects the rationale underlying the capacity constraint theory (Macklem...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012963916
Cover Image
The impact of the COVID-19 shock on euro area potential output : a sectoral approach
Bandera, Nicolò; Bodnár, Katalin; Le Roux, Julien; … - 2022
The COVID-19 crisis has affected economic sectors very heterogeneously, with possible risks for permanent losses in some sectors. This paper presents a sectoral-level, bottom- up method to estimate euro area potential outputin order to assess the impact of the crisis on it. The estimates are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013367033
Cover Image
RGAP: output gap estimation in R
Streicher, Sina - 2022
Commission proposes a production function methodology that involves the estimation of two classes of Gaussian state space models … unobserved component models and offers frequentist as well as Bayesian estimation techniques. Additional functionalities include … preparation, model specification, and estimation processes using RGAP. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013256541
Cover Image
A Multivariate Unobserved Components Model to Estimate Potential Output in the Euro Area : A Production Function Based Approach
Tóth, Máté - 2021
This paper builds an unobserved components model that combines a multivariate filter approach with a Cobb-Douglas production function. This combination allows potential output estimates to incorporate more economic structure than the traditional production function approach, while retaining the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013243813
Cover Image
Assessment Criteria for Output Gap Estimates
Camba-Mendez, Gonzalo; Rodriguez-Palenzuela, Diego - 2021
This paper assesses the statistical reliability of different measures of the output gap for the Euro-11 area and the US using output, inflation and unemployment systems. In order to assess the reliability of an output gap estimate two criteria are adopted. Firstly, the estimate should have...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013320291