The aim of this paper is to examine the short term dynamics of foreign exchange rate spreads. Using a vector autoregressive model (VAR) we show that most of the variation in the spread comes from the long run dependencies between past and future spreads rather than being caused by changes in...

In contrast to earlier recessions, the monetary regimes of many small economies have not changed in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. This is due in part to the fact that many small economies continue to use hard exchange rate fixes, a reasonably durable regime. However, most of the...

This paper starts from the theoretical concepts of financial market, and approaches, in the beginning, the financial system "trilemma: Capital mobility - Exchange rate - Monetary Policy ", faced by an open economic system. The article also presents an overview of the principles on which relies...

Developing new methods for predictive modeling of time series and application of the existing techniques in other areas will be a permanent concern for both researchers and companies that are interested in gaining competitive advantages. In this paper I present the construction of an artificial...

A total of 80 currency boards have come into existence at some point since the mid-19th century, but to date only about 15 of them still exist, among which is the CFA franc monetary zone. The future sustainability of the CFA franc zone, to which the CEMAC CFA franc belongs, is increasingly...

The phenomenon of incomplete exchange rate pass-through to prices has become one of the key research areas within so-called New Open Economy Macroeconomics. This theme is widely analyzed mainly in the American literature at macroeconomics as well as on microeconomics levels. The main aim of the...

This paper analyses predictions of a simple model of currency crises in which the peg will be abandoned when the currency overvaluation hits a certain threshold, unknown to the agents. Due to learning about the threshold, some features usually observed in the data and identified with models with...

This study assesses the response of the trade balance to exchange rate fluctuations across a large number of countries. Fixed-effects regressions are estimated for 87 countries on annual data from 1994 to 2010. The trade balance improves significantly after a real depreciation, and to a similar...

This paper examines whether forming an optimum currency area (OCA) is viable for the East Asian region by testing the symmetry of underlying structural shocks. A structural vector autoregression (VAR) method is used to identify the underlying shocks and to examine the correlation in shocks for...

The notable rebound of U.S. manufacturing activity following the Great Recession has raised the question of whether the sector might be experiencing a renaissance. Using panel regressions, we find that a depreciating real exchange rate, an increasing spread in natural gas prices between the...