This paper shows that the result implied by the Redux model of Obstfeld and Rogoff (1995) - that the exchange rate depreciates in response to balanced-budget fiscal expansions - is completely reversed once we account for two key features of modern New Open Economy Macroeconomics models: home...

The main objective of this paper is to test the hypothesis that emerging markets are more sensitive to negative shocks than positive ones, and also that developed ones do not exhibit this same pattern. Using the family of ARCH models, the conditional variances of exchange rates in Brazil, Mexico...

Monetary policy changes in 2012 were unpredictable. This cannot be simply attributed to the election cycle. More fundamentally, incoherent policy measures have been present since the onset of the 2008 global recession. Within such a framework, industrialization and economic policy were treated...

The paper summarizes key findings of alternative lines of research on the relationship between food and fuel markets, and identifies gaps between two bodies of literature: one that investigates the relationship between food and fuel prices, and another that investigates the impact of the...

Using VAR, a large literature claims to find evidence of some form of Dornbuschovershooting. But the evidence is fragile in the sense of Leamer. The literature uses the wrong test for overshooting, unusually narrow confidence intervals and questionable shocks. In addition, it is difficult to...

The literature assumes that the theory of uncovered interest parity fails because investing without cover is risky and investors are risk adverse. But covered interest parity implies that the theory can fail even when investors are risk neutral and hold when investors are risk adverse and there...

This article examines the impact of different exchange rate regimes on economic conditions during an external economic shock. It focuses on the recent global recession of 2008 and analyses its impact on two emerging market economies: Poland and Slovakia. These countries share many similarities,...