Finds civil wars and their recurrence fall into three patterns: (1) the 'conflict trap,' meaning once a country … recidivism rate from 1945-2009; (2) the dominant form of armed conflict in the world today is recurring civil war; and (3 …. Political institutions are the key to explaining why some countries can escape the conflict trap while others cannot. How the …

other, and subsequently, all three countries select their import tariffs. We show that PTAs produce both a "peace …-creation " and a " peace-diversion" effect, whereby they reduce the likelihood of confl ict between member countries (peace creation …), but could render the eruption of war between member and non-member countries more likely (peace diversion). This paper is …