This paper contains new results for helping to understand financial crises. First, we present a new model for obtaining the probability of equity crises within one year in advance, and we test it. Second and separately, various markets already in crises appear quantitatively related to a theory...

In two previous papers we introduced Smart Monte Carlo SMC, more accurate and faster than traditional MC. Here we apply SMC to American Monte Carlo AMC. The main tool is the Feynman-Wiener path integral with a useful binning procedure. We also suggest Prony interpolating functions with...

“Smart Monte Carlo” (SMC) improves accuracy and speed. We extend results in an earlier paper, applying SMC to path-dependent deals and multifactor models. Auxiliary results are a path-to-path distance, an analytic approximation for N-dimensional Gaussian integrals, and time interpolation...

We present “Smart Monte Carlo” or SMC, improving the efficiency of Monte Carlo (MC) simulations. SMC has two “stages”. The first stage, run adaptively for each deal, produces equivalent results to standard MC simulation using fewer calls to the time-consuming pricing functions. The...

The Macro Micro (MM) model contains different time scales and deals with risk as it occurs in the real world, especially trend risk. A new methodology - Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) – is introduced to identify historical trends, trend volatilities, and noise-reduced trend-trend...

We describe some details of extensions of the Macro Micro (MM) model. Applications include a long-term real-world PFE risk simulation, including realistic quasi-random Macro trends. The details elaborated here include the use of the 3rd order skew Green function to obtain micro mean reversion, a...

We present the framework for a distressed bond model. The utility is as a proxy for calculating the risk of a distressed bond portfolio. We elaborate several possible implementations and give an example

We present evidence that markets in crisis can be described by a critical exponent of the nonlinear-diffusion Reggeon Field Theory, calculated 40 years ago, with no free parameters, translated to finance. We propose this as a benchmark for average crisis behavior, to which individual crises can...

We present a new technique for obtaining a positive definite (PD) correlation matrix from a stressed target matrix within the context of Advanced Stressed Value at Risk, (cf. Dash ). The technique uses the spherical decomposition and a “nearest neighbor” technique. The advantage is that...

We showed that Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) applied to time series yields better correlations for risk simulations. This involved comparing SSA-based correlations with standard correlations and to noise, a zero correlation Wishart random matrix (WRM). We complete this testing here. We also...