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Mortality is different across countries, states and regions. Several empirical research works however reveal that … mortality trends exhibit a common pattern and show similar structures across populations. The key element in analyzing mortality … the empirical findings, we make the study of estimating and forecasting mortality rates based on a semi …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011489251
Based on the Lee-Carter (LC) model, the benchmark in population forecasting, a variety of extensions and modifications are proposed in this paper. We investigate one of the extensions, the Hyndman-Ullah (HU) method and apply it to Asian demographic data sets: China, Japan and Taiwan. It combines...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010477583
-life mortality using data from the Uppsala Birth Cohort Study of individuals born in 1915-1929. The results suggest a relationship …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010386392
Mortality is different across countries, states and regions. Several empirical research works however reveal that … mortality trends exhibit a common pattern and show similar structures across populations. The key element in analyzing mortality … the empirical findings, we make the study of estimating and forecasting mortality rates based on a semi …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011531899
I adapt Schmertmann's Calibrated Spline method to the problem of estimating a complete mortality schedule from abridged … data. I demonstrate its ability to fit the range of mortality profiles seen across the epidemiological transition. I find …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012902694
High-frequency data can provide us with a quantity of information for forecasting, help to calculate and prevent the future risk based on extremes. This tail behaviour is very often driven by exogenous components and may be modelled conditional on other variables. However, many of these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012941576
This paper considers an alternative way of structuring stochastic variables in a dynamic programming framework where the model structure dictates that numerical methods of solution are necessary. Rather than estimating integrals within a Bellman equation using quadrature nodes, we use nodes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012968342
High-frequency data can provide us with a quantity of informa- tion for forecasting, help to calculate and prevent the future risk based on extremes. This tail behaviour is very often driven by ex- ogenous components and may be modelled conditional on other vari- ables. However, many of these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011760356
estimation. Many variables that actuaries use are on numerical scales, like age or year, which require parameters at each point … mortality modeling for related populations. Bayesian shrinkage of slope changes of linear splines is an approach to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012859790
using a variety of estimation techniques. The preference is given to the semi-parametric model where the cumulative …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014180585