We examine an approach to portfolio construction that that uses probability-based security analysis and find considerable evidence that the approach produces abnormal returns. High-minus-low value weighted portfolio returns are 0.50% per month and are monotonically increasing across probability...

In this paper, we examine changes in the behavior of ex-dividend stock prices when the exchanges changed from pricing stocks in discrete intervals to decimal pricing. Based on prior models of ex-dividend behavior and price discreteness of Dubofsky and of Bali and Hite, we anticipate that the...

Portfolios of equity mutual funds tend to be equally weighted to a greater degree than they are value weighted according to metrics of fund weightedness developed in this paper. Measures of fund investment performance based solely on a single value-weighted or equally weighted benchmark may...

This paper proposes the application of an option-pricing framework to the ex-dividend behavior of common stocks. This framework explains the observed behavior of positive returns on the ex-dividend day and predicts that ex-dividend day returns will be higher for firms with greater financial...