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Our paper studies the relationship between money growth and consumer price inflation in the euro area using wavelet … analysis. Wavelet analysis allows to account for variations in the money growth-inflation relationship both across the … frequency spectrum and across time. We find evidence of strong comovements between money growth and inflation at low frequencies …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010433361
Part of the present inflation is caused by the breakdown of globalization, in particular supply chains, part is caused … the past and in the presence. This paper attributes inflation decisively to the overwhelming money creation by the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013553631
longer-run inflation developments in the euro area. Employing an eclectic approach we consider various relevant theories …-frequency variations of inflation. Money growth is found to be causal for inflation only if other variables are omitted, which we therefore … treibenden Kräfte hinter den längerfristigen Inflationsentwicklungen in der Eurozone. Wir verwenden einen eklektischen Ansatz …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003915318
revisit claims in the literature that money growth is Granger-causal for inflation at low frequencies. Applying frequency …-specific tests in a comprehensive system setup for euro-area data we consider various theoretical predictors of inflation. A general … Granger-causal for low-frequency inflation movements, and all variables affect money growth. We therefore interpret opposite …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009774367
indicators in predicting euro area HICP inflation out-of-sample over the period first quarter 1999 till third quarter 2006 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316597
This paper investigates the properties of monetary and credit aggregates as indicators for future price developments in the euro area. The forecasting performance of models including indicators based on money and credit is assessed in a simulated out-of-sample forecasting exercise for forecast...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013320283
money in forecasting euro-area inflation. We compare the predictive performance within and among various classes of … contains relevant information for inflation in some model classes. Money-based New Keynesian DSGE models and VARs incorporating … in an all-out horserace. -- Information content of money ; inflation forecasting ; New Keynesian model ; DSGE model ; P …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003797937
movements do not have an impact on inflation, as aggregate rules of thumb mask substantial heterogeneities across countries … deviations of inflation from target, including those relating to exchange rate fluctuations. Moreover, under the effective lower … inflation. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012206373
money in forecasting euro-area inflation. We compare the predictive performance within and among various classes of … contains relevant information for inflation in some model classes. Money-based New Keynesian DSGE models and VARs incorporating …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010299146
We update the wavelet-based analysis of the relationship between money growth and inflation in the euro area in Mandler … and Scharnagl (2014). The relationship between headline M3 growth and inflation at low frequencies has weakened over the … inflation for cycles of 24 years and longer duration. The long-run fluctuations of adjusted money growth and inflation move …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014476388