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find that real-time output gaps in our sample period are negatively biased. This bias is observed (i) irrespective of the … magnitude of the bias is considerable: on average, real-time cyclical components as a percentage of GDP are biased downwards by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009566470
reliability of output gap estimation methods and their use for calculating structural budget balances. In this paper we review the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012438332
reliability of output gap estimation methods and their use for calculating structural budget balances. In this paper we review the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012504787
In this study, we will perform a simulation exercise to investigate whether the use of explicit fiscal rules improves the macroeconomic performance in the economic framework of the European Union (EU), where the fall in income levels occurred very asymmetrically, and this has accentuated the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013252537
This paper analyses the cyclicality of fiscal policy (discretionary versus automatic) for 28 advanced economies over 1995-2021 by paying special attention to the Covid-19 crisis. We find evidence that discretionary fiscal policy during the Covid-19 crisis (2020-2021) was significantly more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013373264
We project the path of the public debt and primary surpluses for a number of countries in the euro area under a fiscal rule based on a set of estimated fiscal policy reaction functions. Our fiscal rule represents a fiscal analogue to a well-known monetary policy rule, and it is calibrated using...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010235435
In 2011 we recommended the application of a structural fiscal rule to the case of Mexico, given the country's repetitive inability to implement a genuine fiscal reform. At that time, we said that due to the absence of a fiscal reform that increases tax revenues significantly, Mexico needs to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012932021
We formulate and estimate a simple fiscal policy reaction function for the euro area and individual euro area countries. Our reaction function allows for primary surpluses to feature three components: an anti-cyclical response of primary surpluses to the output gap, a response to the debt-GDP...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010235448
find that real-time output gaps in our sample period are negatively biased. This bias is observed (i) irrespective of the … magnitude of the bias is considerable: on average, real-time cyclical components as a percentage of GDP are biased downwards by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010309617
The dynamic and the structure of the economy determine the effects of political economy shocks, fiscal and monetary policy. Based on a DSGE model and stylized facts for small open economy, we evaluate the effects of fiscal consumption tax shocks on the presence of two fiscal rules in the periods...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013122831