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comovement among different commodities. We assess whether speculation in the oil market played a role in driving this salient … the strength of global demand. However, speculation played a significant role in the oil price increase between 2004 and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013107787
herding behavior and market risk. Moreover, speculators' orders depend on price trends, market misalignments and fundamental … news. Using a mix of analytical and numerical tools, we show that a herding-induced market entry wave may amplify excess … demand, triggering lasting volatility outbursts. Eventually, however, higher stock market risk reduces stock market …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011702006
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011803885
Abstract: The coincident rise in crude oil prices and increased numbers of financial participants in the crude oil futures market from 2000-2008 has led to allegations that "speculators" drive crude oil prices. As crude oil futures peaked at $147/bbl in July 2008, the role of speculators came...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013157978
We analyze the relation between volatility and speculative activities in the crude oil futures market and provide short …-term forecasts accordingly. By incorporating trading volume and opening interest (speculative ratio) into the volatility dynamics, we … document the subtle interaction between the two measures of which the volatility-averse behavior of speculative activities …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012908948
We propose using a new relative measure, the speculative ratio, defined as trading volume divided by open interest, to gauge speculative activity in the oil futures market. We apply the speculative ratio to examine the relation between basis and speculative activity in the oil futures market...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013016751
We look into determinants (volatility, crises, sentiment and the U.S. ‘fear’ index) of herding using BRICS as our … relationship between volatility and CSAD (cross sectional absolute deviation)/herding, a lower CSAD (movement in a specific … direction) brings about less volatility. However, a high volatility amplifies herding (reduces CSAD), especially in China …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013164975
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010371827
How much does speculation contribute to oil price volatility? We revisit this contentious question by estimating a sign … the contribution of speculation to short-term oil price volatility (lying between 3 and 22 percent). This estimated short … model of the world oil market à la Kilian and Murphy (2013), since both imply a positive co-movement of oil prices and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013028690
This study examines the effect of Herding in different states (low, high and extreme volatility) in Tehran Stock … herding behavior under the low volatility regime … Exchange during the years 2009-2013 using Chang et al. (2000) and Balcilar et al. (2013) models. In this survey, herding is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013215838