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We study market perception of sovereign credit risk in the Euro area during the financial crisis. In our analysis we use a parsimonious CDS pricing model to estimate market implied measures of the probability of default (PD) and of the loss given default (LGD). We find that separate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013017354
French, Italian, German and Spanish long-term sovereign bonds during the culmination of the Eurozone debt crisis in 2011 … bond's yields, although Germany's rating status was never touched by CRA. There is no evidence for Granger causality from … bond yields to rating announcements. We infer from these findings that CRA announcements significantly influenced crisis …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010206145
Using a flexible threshold copula model, we investigate the pairwise tail dependence of Eurozone sovereign credit …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012914425
How do cyclical fiscal stabilisation policies affect welfare and government bond risk premia? Using a new Keynesian … model we find that the effects of fiscal policy rules on the bond premium and welfare crucially depend on the source of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013071565
We examine the impact of Chinese monetary policies on the excess bond yields of Chinese local bonds issued by Chinese … high degree of existing resource misallocation. Our estimation results confirm that local government bond excess yields can …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012921780
We examine the impact of Chinese monetary policies on excess local bond yields (the spreads over Chinese government …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012923698
This paper analyzes the nominal yields of UK gilt-edged securities ("gilts") based on a Keynesian perspective, which holds that the short-term interest rate is the primary driver of the long-term interest rate. Quarterly data are used to model gilts' nominal yields. These models bring to light...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012291941
Equilibrium bond-pricing models rely on inflation being bad news for future growth to generate upward-sloping nominal …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011864574
we label Convergence Gap (CG), contains information that is valuable for bond predictability. Adding CG in forecasting … regressions of bond excess returns significantly raises the R-squared, and restores countercyclical variation in bond risk premia … the path of rates, our factor has predictive ability for real bond excess returns. The importance of the gap remains …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012134247
Riksbank and the European Central Bank (ECB) on bond risk premia in the Swedish government bond market. Using a novel arbitrage …-free dynamic term structure model of nominal and real bond prices that accounts for bondspecific safety premia, we find that … Sveriges Riksbank's bond purchases raised inflation and short-rate expectations, lowered nominal and real term premia and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014517711