We introduce a smooth transition Generalized Pareto (GP) regression model to study the link between extreme losses and the economic context. The advantage of our approach consists in specifying a time-varying dependence structure between financial factors and the severity distribution of the...

We propose a dynamic measure of extremal connectedness across investment styles of hedge funds. Using multivariate extreme value regression techniques, we estimate this measure conditional on factors reflecting the economic uncertainty and the state of the financial markets, and derive several...

We investigate a novel database of 10,217 extreme operational losses from the Italian bank UniCredit, covering a period of 10 years and 7 different event types. Our goal is to shed light on the dependence between the severity distribution of these losses and a set of macroeconomic, financial and...

For numerous applications it is of interest to provide full probabilistic forecasts, which are able to assign probabilities to each predicted outcome. Therefore, attention is shifting constantly from conditional mean models to probabilistic distributional models capturing location, scale, shape...

We study the link between the volatility of exchange rates and interest rate differentials (IRD), motivated by the importance of currency carry trade activities in exchange rate dynamics. We examine this link by means of an extended stochastic volatility model, for which we detail an efficient...