In this paper, we extend the literature on crash prediction models in three main ways. First, we explicitly relate crash prediction measures and asset pricing models. Second, we present a simple, effective statistical significance test for crash prediction models. Finally, we propose a...

An examination of the Shiller cyclically adjusted pricing-earnings (CAPE) ratio reveals its forecasting power for 12-month CRSP equally weighted (EW) excess returns and value weighted (VW) excess returns. The 12-month EW excess returns following low CAPE ratios are, on average, 20.7% higher than...

We study the importance of production networks for the transmission of macroeconomic shocks using the stock market reaction to monetary policy shocks as a laboratory. We decompose the overall effect of monetary policy shocks into a direct effect and a network effect and attribute 60 to 85...

This paper examines if firms in the United States with quality training programs can enjoy above-the-market-average benefits and performance by analyzing risk premiums and risk-adjusted excess returns of a portfolio of public firms in the United States, which are ranked consecutively from 2006...

The CAPM is commonly used for an introduction of the equity cost in practice to calculate the corporate value, which is composed by the risk-free rate, equity market return and each respective beta. However, there is a fundamental complication between the risk, cost and return for the equity...

This paper provides evidence that the market does not efficiently incorporate expected returns implied by analyst price targets into prices. I use a novel decomposition to extract information and bias components from these analyst-expected returns and develop an asset pricing framework that...

Heston and Sadka (2008) document the return seasonality anomaly—that cross-sectional stock returns depend on their historical same calendar-month returns. We propose an information-cycle explanation for this anomaly, that firms’ seasonal information releases lead to higher returns in months...

Inspired by Aumann and Serrano (2008) and Foster and Hart (2009), we propose risk-neutral options' implied measures of riskiness and investigate their significance in predicting the cross section of expected returns per unit of risk. The empirical analyses indicate a negative and significant...

This paper studies the relative prices of dual-class shares - i.e., equities from the same company that are listed on two different markets. Theoretically, frictions such as short-sale constraints and limited risk-bearing capacity can lead identical securities trading in different markets to...