A large literature uses high-frequency changes in interest rates around FOMC announcements to study monetary policy. These yield changes have puzzlingly low explanatory power for the stock market - even in a narrow 30-minute window. We propose a new approach to test whether the unexplained...

Is real investment fully determined by fundamentals or is it sometimes affected by stock market misvaluation? We introduce three new tests that: measure the reaction of investment to sales shocks for firms that may be overvalued; use Fama-MacBeth regressions to determine whether "overinvestment"...

Since the opening of China’s securities market, there have been a number of bull and bear cycles. This paper discusses how executives use the market timing approach to manage earnings in different cycles to maximize firm value. We find that Chinese listed companies choose to release more...

Recent literature theoretically assumes that exuberant Investors' sentiments increase the price of capital, signals strong fundamentals of the real side of the economy and drive asymmetric nonlinear asset prices. This study offers empirical insights into the interaction between investor...

We provide evidence of the stock market wealth effect on consumption by using a local labor market analysis and regional heterogeneity in stock market wealth. An increase in local stock wealth driven by aggregate stock prices increases local employment and payroll in nontradable industries and...

Using U.S. data from 1926 to 2015, I show that financial skewness?a measure comparing cross-sectional upside and downside risks of the distribution of stock market returns of financial firms?is a powerful predictor of business cycle fluctuations. I then show that shocks to financial skewness are...

In this study, we examine stock market shocks using a Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model encompassing 26 countries from January 1999 to June 2022. Our findings reveal that i) shocks originating from advanced economies (AD) exhibit greater persistence in generating fluctuations compared to...

In this paper, we investigate the dynamic link between recessions and stock market liquidity by examining the predictive content of illiquidity for US recessions. After controlling for other commonly featured recession predictors such as term spreads and credit spreads, we find that the...