In this paper, we extend Bossaerts' (2004) analysis of the implications of the efficient learning market hypothesis (ELM) for asset prices by reformulating it in a GMM setting. Our representation is more amenable to widespread application and allows the econometrician, in testing ELM, to make...

In this paper, we study predictability of exchange rates and explore determinants of its dynamics over time. We model the admissible amount of predictability in two ways, each corresponding in a stylized manner to a broad class of rational currency pricing models, namely those under which the...

Single factor asset pricing models face two major hurdles: the problematic time-series properties of the ex ante market risk premium and the inability of the risk measure to account for a substantial degree of the cross-sectional variation of expected excess returns. We provide an explanation...

We present a framework for modeling and estimating dynamics of variance and skewness from time-series data using a maximum likelihood approach assuming that the errors from the mean have a non-central conditional t distribution. We parameterize conditional variance and conditional skewness in an...

Factor-based asset pricing models have been used to explain the common predictable variation in excess asset returns. This paper combines means with volatilities of returns in several futures markets to explain their common predictable variation. Using a latent variables methodology, tests do...

The characterization of term premia movements continues to be a puzzle in finance though the term premia are used for return predictability and studying broader economic activity. We analyze the movements of the first and second conditional moments of term premia in a non-linear non- parametric...

Stochastic implied volatilities from option prices and GARCH models are two ways of capturing the time variation of conditional variances. However, what volatilities they predict is still an unanswered question. This paper finds that implied volatilities obtained from options using the...

If asset returns have systematic skewness, expected returns should include rewards for accepting this risk. We formalize this intuition with an asset pricing model which incorporates conditional skewness. Our results show that conditional skewness helps explain the cross-sectional variation of...

How credible is the widely held belief that the Federal Reserve supports the markets? While this ``Greenspan Put" has received much public attention there is little empirical evidence that documents its existence and significance. In this paper, we exploit the time-series variation in the Fed...