This review examines the empirical literature on financial flows and economic performance, with particular respect to foreign direct investment (FDI), foreign portfolio investment (FPI), and foreign bank lending (FBL). Few studies report unequivocal positive statistical relations between flows...

Studies of emerging stock market anomalies are based on underspecified models. Extreme bound analysis (EBA), a technique to remedy specification bias, indicates that no anomaly is robust, given panel data covering sixteen countries from March 1988 through January 1995. Only under a relaxed...

The absence of continuous regime type measures that focus on institutions rather than outcomes besets studies on whether democratic or authoritarian regimes grow faster. Additional shortcomings include the failure to consider development stages and the erroneous endogenous specification of...

Forward foreign exchange contracts embed not only expected depreciation but also a sizable premium, which complicates inferences about anticipated returns. This study derives arbitrage-free affine forward currency models (AFCMs) with closed-form expressions for both unobservable variables. Model...

Purportedly consistent with “risk parity” (RP) asset allocation, recent studies document compelling “low risk” trading strategies that exploit a persistently negative relation between Sharpe ratios (SRs) and maturity along the U.S. Treasury (UST) term structure. This paper extends this...

The skew, irrespective of the mean and variance, of investors' interest rate expectations may affect required bond yields over expected short rates. Indeed, evidence suggests that the near-term skew of the option-implied distribution of expected short-term interest rates correlates with...

An affine term structure model of nominal U.S. Treasuries (USTs) that decomposes yields into frictionless expected rates, frictionless term premiums, and liquidity premiums produces three key results given data from January 1987 through April 2022. First, model yield and excess return loadings...

A small but ambitious literature uses affine arbitrage-free models to estimate jointly U.S. Treasury term premiums and the term structure of equity risk premiums. Within this approach, this paper identifies the parameter restrictions that are consistent with a simple dividend discount model,...

A vast literature reports excess returns to momentum strategies across many financial asset classes. However, no study examines trading rules based on price history along individual government-bond term structures — that is, with respect to duration buckets across the curve — as opposed to...

This paper examines estimates of the term premium on federal funds futures rates, with a focus on near-dated contracts and therefore the more immediate policy horizon. The first set of methods assumes that the term premium is constant over time. Under this framework, calculations that use survey...