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Suetens, Sigrid - 2011

The “gambler's fallacy” is the false belief that a random event is less likely to occur if the event has occurred recently. Such beliefs are false if the onset of events is in fact independent of previous events. We study gender differences in the gambler's fallacy using data from the Danish...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013130235

The Source of Uncertainty in Probabilistic Preferences Over Gambles

Charles-Cadogan, G. - 2012

Probabilistic preference models predict that a subject makes different choices with different probabilities in repeatedly experiments with the same stimuli. This paper explains why. First, we prove that a gamble is a statistical ensemble or sample function of a random field with canonical...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013113294

Intuition and Reasoning in Choosing Ambiguous and Risky Lotteries

Bergheim, Ralf - 2013

This paper focuses on information acquisition and individual decision making in ambiguous situations and presents a novel experimental design which may help to tackle open questions from a fresh perspective. Instead of giving subjects the choice between risky and ambiguous Ellsberg urns, we let...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013073252

A Model of Casino Gambling

Barberis, Nicholas - 2009

Casino gambling is a hugely popular activity around the world, but there are still very few models of why people go to … theory of gambling, one that captures many features of actual gambling behavior. First, we demonstrate that, for a wide range … moment he enters a casino, a prospect theory agent plans to follow one particular gambling strategy; but after he enters, he …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013160134

Lottery Valuation Using the Aspiration/Relative Utility Function

Kontek, Krzysztof - 2009

The paper presents a method for lottery valuation using the relative utility function. This function was presented by Kontek (2009) as 'the aspiration function' and resembles the utility curve proposed by Markowitz (1952A). The paper discusses lotteries with discrete and continuous outcome...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013157857

Testing Alternative Theories of Financial Decision Making : An Experimental Study with Lottery Bonds

Roger, Patrick - 2009

In this article, a simple paper-and-pencil experiment, based on lottery bonds, shows that financial decisions taken by participants are inconsistent with the traditional view of economic agents as risk averse expected utility maximizers. First, our results cast doubt on the relevance of variance...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013159469

Selling to Biased Believers : Strategies of Online Lottery Ticket Vendors

Lien, Jaimie W. - 2016

We provide evidence that sellers respond to buyers' belief biases in a collective lottery betting market, by adopting sales strategies which cater to believers in the Hot Hand and Gambler's Fallacies. Lottery players on the buyer side tend to avoid buying tickets which are similar to the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013004123

QALYs Without Bias? Non-Parametric Correction of Time Trade-Off and Standard Gamble Weights Based on Prospect Theory

Lipman, Stefan - 2018

Common health state valuation methodologies, such as standard gamble (SG) and time trade-off (TTO), typically produce different weights for identical health states. We attempt to alleviate these differences by correcting for confounding influences that are modelled in prospect theory (PT): loss...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012932536

Density Based Regression for Inhomogeneous Data : Application to Lottery Experiments

Kontek, Krzysztof - 2010

This paper presents a regression procedure for inhomogeneous data characterized by varying variance, skewness and kurtosis or by an unequal amount of data over the estimation domain. The concept is based first on the estimation of the densities of an observed variable for given values of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013144565

Mean, Median or Mode? A Striking Conclusion from Lottery Experiments

Kontek, Krzysztof - 2010

This paper deals with estimating data from experiments determining lottery certainty equivalents. The paper presents the parametric and nonparametric results of the least squares (mean), quantile (including median) and mode estimations. The examined data are found to be positively skewed for low...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013145403

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