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A latent dynamic factor approach to forecasting multivariate stock market volatility : conference paper

Gribisch, Bastian - 2013

This paper proposes a latent dynamic factor model for low- as well as high-dimensional realized covariance matrices of stock returns. The approach is based on the matrix logarithm and allows for flexible dynamic dependence patterns by combining common latent factors driven by HAR dynamics and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010341025

Time-varying combinations of Bayesian dynamic models and equity momentum strategies

Basturk, Nalan; Grassi, Stefano; Hoogerheide, Lennart; … - 2016

momentum strategy. The estimation of this modeling and strategy approach can be done using an extended and modified version of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011563065

On the correlation between commodity and equity returns : implications for portfolio allocation

Lombardi, Marco; Ravazzolo, Francesco - 2013

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009782578

Real-Time Bayesian Learning and Bond Return Predictability

Fulop, Andras; Li, Junye; WAN, Runqing - 2019

The paper examines statistical and economic evidence of out-of-sample bond return predictability for a real-time Bayesian investor who learns about parameters, hidden states, and predictive models over time. We find some statistical evidence using information contained in forward rates. However,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014120968

What Our Market Return Forecasts Really Mean : Convexity in Equity Returns and its Implications for Investment Sizing

Haghani, Victor - 2019

You're probably familiar, at least in passing, with the 'convexity' of long-term bonds - i.e. that yields dropping 1% produce a bigger price move than yields rising 1%. A significant amount of brainpower has gone into understanding all the ramifications of this convexity in the fixed income...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012902324

Return and risk of pairs trading using a simulation-based Bayesian procedure for predicting stable ratios of stock prices

Gatarek, Lukasz; Hoogerheide, Lennart F.; Dijk, Herman … - 2014

has for the selection of pairs of cointegrated stock prices and for the estimation and prediction of the spread between … estimation and prediction of the spread - the deviation from the equilibrium relationship - which leads to better results in …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010259626

Return and risk of pairs trading using a simulation-based Bayesian procedure for predicting stable ratios of stock prices

Ardia, David; Gatarek, Lukasz T.; Hoogerheide, Lennart; … - In: Econometrics : open access journal 4 (2016) 1, pp. 1-19

model. Using this class of models and the proposed inferential technique, we are able to connect estimation and model … cointegrated stock prices and further, its effect for the estimation and prediction of the spread between cointegrated stock prices … the estimation and prediction of the spread-the deviation from the equilibrium relationship-which leads to better results …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011505854

Return and Risk of Pairs Trading Using a Simulation-Based Bayesian Procedure for Predicting Stable Ratios of Stock Prices

Gatarek, Lukasz T. - 2014

model. Using this class of models and the proposed inferential technique, we are able to connect estimation and model … cointegrated stock prices and further, its effect for the estimation and prediction of the spread between cointegrated stock prices … normalization for the estimation and prediction of the spread — the deviation from the equilibrium relationship — which leads to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013056713

Assets' Dependence Structure Implications for Portfolio Insurance

Mantilla-Garcia, Daniel - 2018

estimation of the multiplier of these portfolio insurance strategies. We illustrate these implications with a maximum relative …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012911729

Empirical evidence on the importance of aggregation, asymmetry, and jumps for volatility prediction

Duong, Diep; Swanson, Norman R. - 2013

Many recent modelling advances in finance topics ranging from the pricing of volatility-based derivative products to asset management are predicated on the importance of jumps, or discontinuous movements in asset returns. In light of this, a number of recent papers have addressed volatility...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009771770