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We analyze the variance risk of commodity markets. We construct synthetic variance swaps and find significantly negative realized and expected variance swap payoffs in most markets. We find evidence of commonalities among the realized payoffs of commodity variance swaps. We also document...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012905452
We propose and test a theory of using commodities as collateral for financing. Under capital control and collateral … theory of storage and provide new insights into the financialization of commodity markets …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013006991
This paper evaluates how different types of speculation affect the volatility of commodities' futures prices. We adopt … four indexes of speculation: Working's T, the market share of non-commercial traders, the percentage of net long … speculators over total open interest in future markets, which proxy for long term speculation, and scalping, which proxies for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009756298
We examine the disruptions to global commodity flows following the bankruptcy of a commodity trading firm. The physical commodity network is operated by a handful of large traders that are responsible for the timely delivery of raw materials and inputs to industrial production. We propose a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014256266
On the 30th anniversary of the seminal article by Pindyck (1993), we re-evaluate the evidence for the classical rational model of commodity prices, extending it to admit time- varying discount rates, investors’ heterogeneity or both. Discount factors specifications are flexible enough to allow...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014351164
Most institutional investors gain access to commodities through diversified index funds, even though mean-reverting prices and low correlation among commodities returns indicate that two-fund separation does not hold for commodities. In contrast to demand for stocks and bonds, we find that, on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012898893
We propose using a new relative measure, the speculative ratio, defined as trading volume divided by open interest, to gauge speculative activity in the oil futures market. We apply the speculative ratio to examine the relation between basis and speculative activity in the oil futures market...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013016751
We report new evidence that speculation in energy and precious metal futures are more prevalent in crisis periods and … is strongly and often non-linearly associated with speculation across instruments …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013240256
yields decrease at a diminishing rate as inventories increase, consistent with the theory of storage. In addition to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013314658
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011623721