Using novel measures of politics-policy uncertainty we document predictable variation in stock market returns across countries. Country characteristics and existing global and local risk factors do not account for such predictability, leading to large abnormal returns, up to 15% per annum. We...

This paper examines the effect of changes in sovereign credit ratings and their outlook on the stock market returns of European countries at different phases of business cycle. Using standard four factors model, study records a significant average marginal effect of credit rating announcements...

We investigate interconnectedness and the contagion effect of default risk in Asian sovereign CDS markets since the global financial crisis. Using dynamic conditional correlation analysis, we find that there are significant co-movements in Asian sovereign CDS markets; that such co-movements tend...

Since the onset of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis, credit risk spreads in Europe have diverged. Despite this divergence, credit risk comoves strongly within certain country groups such as the eurozone periphery. We seek to answer what the determinants of the observed pattern of credit risk...

We provide new empirical evidence that U.S. expected growth and consumption volatility are closely related to the strong co-movement in sovereign spreads. We rationalize these findings in an equilibrium model with recursive utility for CDS spreads. The framework nests a reduced-form default...

This study establishes time-frequency networks of sovereign and bank contagion in the eurozone over the period 2009-2021. By applying discrete wavelet transformation, daily CDS premia of sovereigns and banks are decomposed into multi-horizon components to specify directed and dependence-weighted...

The paper analyses the drivers of sovereign risk for 31 advanced and emerging economies during the European sovereign debt crisis. It shows that a deterioration in countries' fundamentals and fundamentals contagion – a sharp rise in the sensitivity of financial markets to fundamentals – are...

We study the determinants of sovereign credit risk in the euro area in a time period that includes the financial and sovereign debt crisis, as well as the unconventional monetary policy adopted by the European Central Bank. First, we detect the presence of commonality in sovereign credit spreads...

This paper develops a dependence-switching copula model to examine dependence and tail dependence for four different market statuses, namely, rising-stocks/appreciating-currency, falling-stocks/depreciating-currency, rising-stocks/depreciating-currency, and falling-stocks/appreciating-currency....

This study examines whether the Indian stock market is efficient in semi-strong form and seasonality exists. For this purpose, we take the first and fourth quarters‟ results of companies for the years 2008 to 2011. We divide companies into good news and bad news portfolios on the basis of...