We develop a general framework for optimal health policy design in a dynamic setting. We consider a hypothetical medical intervention for a cohort of patients where one parameter varies across cohorts with imperfectly observable linear dynamics. We seek to identify the optimal time to change the...

The world economy is undergoing dramatic changes, largely driven by the new availability of fine-grained information. Innovative ways of using data—large and small—have also prompted a rethinking of the boundaries for the combination and use of knowledge. The strategic design of information...

We construct a ‘reflexivity' index to measure the activity generated endogenously within a market for cryptocurrencies. For this purpose, we fit a univariate self-exciting Hawkes process with two classes of parametric kernels to high-frequency trading data. A parsimonious model of both...

We introduce an augmented Becker-DeGroot-Marschak mechanism for the revelation of willingness-to-accept and willingness-to-pay in transaction cycles. The mechanism can be used to test for a behavioral anomaly

Temporary water transfers, as achievable under option contracts, capture gains from trade that would go unrealized if only permanent transfers of water rights were possible. This paper develops a bilateral option contracting model for water which includes the possibility of conveyance losses and...

We consider a confidence parametrization of binary information sources in terms of appropriate likelihood ratios. This parametrization is used to construct tools for Bayesian belief updates and for equivalent comparisons of binary experiments. First, we provide a Bayesian Update Diagram, which...

We show that the Hicksian welfare measures of compensating variation and equivalent variation coincide if one of them is evaluated at a compensated income. The measures are nondecreasing in income if the varied attribute and income are complementary, and indirect utility is concave in income....

In this paper we consider the problem of efficiently allocating a given resource or object repeatedly over time. The agents, who may temporarily receive access to the resource, learn more about its value through its use. When the agents' beliefs about their valuations at any given time are...

We consider a general multi-principal multi-agent contracting game in a complete-information supply-chain setting and determine coordinating equilibrium transfer schedules in closed form. The resulting contracts manage to align incentives for decentralized decision-making and achieve first-best...

We consider comparative statics of solutions to parameterized optimization problems. A geometric method is developed for finding a vector field that, at each point in the parameter space, indicates a direction in which monotone comparative statics obtain. Given such a vector field, we provide...