Based on a dynamic model of the stochastic repayment behavior exhibited by delinquent credit-card accounts as a self-exciting point process, a bank can control the arrival intensity of repayments using costly account-treatment actions. A semi-analytic solution to the corresponding stochastic...

We address a critical question that many firms are facing in this era of "big data'': Can customer data be stored and analyzed in an easy-to-manage and scalable manner without significantly compromising the inferences that can be made about the customers' transaction activity? We address this...

I present evidence of systematically heterogeneous expectations, a violation of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis. I demonstrate that the expectations of different gender and wealth cohorts have different relative abilities to predict inflation, interest rates, unemployment, income, stock...

The number of homeless people needing housing far exceeds the available housing supply, and there is not a fair, objective system for prioritizing who gets to be housed. The triage tool addresses this problem by identifying individuals for whom the solution of housing costs less than the problem...

This report uses estimates from the Congressional Budget Office to project an unemployment scenario for the Pandemic Recession. We go on to use detailed unemployment and homeless data from the 2008 Great Recession to estimate the linkage between unemployment and homelessness and forecast the...

This report estimates the demography, occupations, industries, and communities of California workers who have a high risk of unemployment in the 2020 Covid recession so that they and their employers can be located and provided with timely and effective assistance for preventing economic...

This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the Livingston Survey, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the Michigan Survey. While these measures have been useful in developing models of forecasting inflation, the data are low frequency...

I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the...