We use sovereign debt rating estimations from Afonso, Gomes and Rother (2009, 2010) for Fitch, Moody's, and Standard & Poor's, to assess to what extent the recent fiscal imbalances are being reflected on the sovereign debt notations. We use macro and fiscal data up to 2009, and macro and fiscal...

We investigate whether issuers that choose to forgo a bond rating suffer an interest cost penalty greater than the cost of the rating. We use estimated ratings provided by Moody's Investor Service to proxy for what the rating would have been if it had been purchased. We find that the primary...

The activity of Credit Rating Agencies (CRAs) can lead to Excessive Volatility Risk (EVR), adversely affecting issuances of debt by sovereign governments. By EVR, we mean the risk of effects on bond yields, caused by ratings which are independent from the supply of new information (information...

An equation explaining the long-run behavior of the bond rate from 1971 to 1993 indicates that inflation is the main long-run economic determinant of the bond rate. Monetary policy actions have short-run but no long-run effects on the rate. During the subperiod 1979 to 1993, however, some...

In response to a request from the California Debt and Investment Advisory Commission, we propose a model to estimate default probabilities for bonds issued by cities. The model can be used with financial data available in Comprehensive Annual Financial Reports that cities are required to...

We investigate the relationship between economic freedom and bond ratings at the state level by asking: Are state bond ratings, ceteris paribus, positively related to economic freedom? Using bounded Tobit we test for the relationship between economic freedom and an aggregate index comprised of...

Excessive borrowing of local governments in China sparked concerns that the debt may threaten the financial stability of the economy and ultimately cause economic collapse. It becomes critically important to understand the credit rating of China's LFGV bonds and the association between the...

This paper studies the impact of credit rating agency (CRA) announcements on the value of the Euro and the yields of French, Italian, German and Spanish long-term sovereign bonds during the culmination of the Eurozone debt crisis in 2011-2012. The employed GARCH models show that CRA downgrade...