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In this paper, we forecast industry returns out-of-sample using the cross-section of book-to-market ratios and investigate whether investors can exploit this predictability in portfolio allocation. Cash-flow and return forecasting regressions show that cross-industry book-to-market ratios...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012968901
Institutional investors, such as pensions and insurers, are typically constrained to hold enough wealth to be able to make their contractually promised payments to fund beneficiaries. This creates an additional risk in the economy, namely the risk of funding shortfall. We seek to explore the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012969149
average riskless rate. Implementing this relation for the CAPM and ICAPM, I find a remarkable improvement. In striking … contrast to extant evidence, an unconditional CAPM with two factors (corresponding to expected beta and kappa) explains 58% of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012970930
This paper derives an equilibrium asset pricing model with liquidity risk. Liquidity risk is modeled as a stochastic quantity impact on the price from trading, where the size of the impact depends on trade size. Under a mild set of assumptions, we prove that an equilibrium price process exists...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012971127
temporary increase in its CAPM beta estimate and a decrease in its CAPM alpha. The increasing effect of breadth of ownership on …-driven components of beta estimates that we find contribute to the empirical failure of the CAPM and the large returns to long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012971144
The work of Treynor and Mazuy (1966) spawned an extensive literature on returns-based measurement of portfolio performance which distinguishes between a manager's ability to act on information specific to an individual asset (asset selection) and ability to forecast systematic risk premiums and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012972567
We study asset prices and portfolio choice with overlapping generations, where the young disregard history to learn from own experience. Disregarding history implies less precise estimates of output growth, which in equilibrium leads the young to increase their investment in risky assets after...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012973608
We show that geographical variation in the level of investor sophistication influences local asset prices. Investors in less sophisticated regions exhibit stronger trading correlations, and correspondingly, the returns of firms headquartered in less sophisticated areas are more strongly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012974776
We compare local and global polynomial solution methods for DSGE models with Epstein-Zin-Weil utility. We show that model implications for macroeconomic quantities are relatively invariant to choice of solution method but that a global method can yield substantial improvements for asset prices...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012976257
We develop a model of asset pricing assuming that investor's behavior is habit forming. The model predicts that the effect of consumption growth shocks on the risk premium depends on the business cycle phase of the economy. This empirical implication is tested with a Markov-switching VAR model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012976650