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We contrast two different asset pricing models, where the pricing kernel either (i) increases in the volatility … dimension, reflecting investors' aversion to volatility, or (ii) could be non-monotonic in volatility, reflecting heterogeneity … in investors' beliefs. The two models yield opposite predictions about volatility tail behavior, whereby the model with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013115088
Financial markets exhibit high levels of volatility. Volatile markets are usually associated with high risks and … high volatility using a suitable hedging structure. One particular volatility hedge, involves taking a position in an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120482
This paper provides an empirical study on the predictability of implied volatility using dataset collected from the … implied volatility characteristics across various maturities. We applied both in and out-of-sample tests that include the … provides evidence of non-random movement in the implied volatility series and indicates predictability of implied volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013121151
We propose two new risk measures (i-beta and i-gamma) for a stock, which aim to distinguish between noise and information. Noise allows the stock price evolution to happen along a continuous path. Market wide economic information is transmitted via price jumps. Noise is idiosyncratic and does...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013124058
, and the corresponding implied volatility surfaces have been analyzed in some detail. In the non-asymptotic regimes, option … trivially expressed in terms of their implied volatility. Recently, attempts at calculating the asymptotic limits of the implied … volatility have yielded several expressions for the short-time, long-time, and wing asymptotics. In order to study the volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013104402
The prices of derivatives contracts can be used to estimate ‘risk-neutral' probability density functions that give an indication of the weight investors place on different future prices of their underlying assets, were they risk-neutral. In the likely case that investors are risk-averse, this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013104539
We propose a model of volatility tail behavior, in which the pricing measure dominates the physical measure in both … tails of the volatility distribution and, hence, the derived pricing kernel exhibits an increasing and decreasing region in … the volatility dimension. The model features investors who have heterogeneity in beliefs about volatility outcomes, and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013108996
between stock returns and idiosyncratic return volatility at the firm level. By allowing for the volatility of the underlying … idiosyncratic choice variables to exhibit independent switches between a high and low volatility regime, we show that the options …' constant expected returns are composed of (i) a state dependent drift term that relates positively with the volatility regime …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013109188
This paper estimates how the shape of the implied volatility smile and the size of the variance risk premium relate to … parameters of GARCH-type time-series models measuring how conditional volatility responds to return shocks. Markets in which … return shocks lead to large increases in conditional volatility tend to have larger variance risk premia than markets in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013081387
This paper studies the predictability of S&P500 returns using short term risk premia as a conditioning variable. We construct dividend prices using futures data and identify short term risk premia by projecting excess returns of dividend claims on their lagged prices. Regression results for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013091355