Similar Search Results

The tail that wags the economy : beliefs and persistent stagnation

Kozlowski, Julian; Veldkamp, Laura; Venkateswaran, Venky - 2018

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011997671

The tail that wags the economy : beliefs and persistent stagnation

Kozlowski, Julian; Veldkamp, Laura; Venkateswaran, Venky - 2019

The Great Recession was a deep downturn with long-lasting effects on credit, employment and output. While narratives about its causes abound, the persistence of GDP below pre-crisis trends remains puzzling. We propose a simple persistence mechanism that can be quantified and combined with...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011997953

Shock persistence, uncertainty and news-driven business cycles

Lee, Kevin; Shields, Kalvinder; Turnip, Guido - 2022

This paper considers the macroeconomic effects of shocks with different persistence properties identified from surveys of expectations. Using a GARCH-in-Mean model for the US, we present persistence profiles to illustrate how news about events occurring over different time frames plays different...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013290119

News or noise? : the missing link

Chahrour, Ryan; Jurado, Kyle - 2016

The literature on belief-driven business cycles treats news and noise as distinct representations of agents' beliefs. We prove they are empirically the same. Our result lets us isolate the importance of purely belief-driven fluctuations. Using three prominent estimated models, we show that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011617346

Producers’ Expectation Shocks and Business Cycles

Silva, Marcelo - 2018

This paper assesses producer-expectation-driven business cycle fluctuations. Based on theoretical predictions of a multi-sector model with market frictions and adjustment cost, and using a unique panel of producer-level data, it seeks to unravel the patterns of dynamic responses to producers'...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012913508

Subjective models of the macroeconomy : evidence from experts and a representative sample

Andre, Peter; Pizzinelli, Carlo; Roth, Christopher; … - 2019

the inflation rate respond to four different hypothetical exogenous shocks: a monetary policy shock, a government spending … shock, an income tax shock, and an oil price shock. While expert predictions are quantitatively close to benchmarks from … predictions of changes in inflation are at odds with those of experts both for the tax shock and the interest rate shock. We show …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012104048

How do agents form macroeconomic expectations? : evidence from inflation uncertainty

Wang, Tao - 2024 - Last updated: February 16, 2024

This paper studies the behaviors of uncertainty through the lens of several popular models of expectation formation. The full-information rational expectations model (FIRE) predicts that both the ex ante uncertainty and the variance of ex post forecast errors are equal to the conditional...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014475397

Firm expectations and economic activity

Enders, Zeno; Hünnekes, Franziska; Müller, Gernot J. - 2019

We assess how survey expectations impact production and pricing decisions on the basis of a large panel of German firms. We identify the causal effect of expectations by matching firms with the same fundamentals but different views about the future. The probability to raise (lower) production is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012001909

Long-run growth uncertainty

Kuang, Pei; Mitra, Kaushik - 2016

Observed macroeconomic forecasts display gradual recognition of the long-run growth of endogenous variables (e.g. output, output per hour) and a positive correlation between long-run growth expectations and cyclical activities. Existing business cycle models appear inconsistent with the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012010392

The tail that wags the economy : belief-driven business cycles and persistent stagnation

Kozlowski, Julian; Veldkamp, Laura; Venkateswaran, Venky - 2015

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011418955

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Next
Last