We employ a Mixed-Frequency VAR to study the effect of four valuation ratios (the price-dividend ratio, the price-earnings ratio, the Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings Ratio and the Total Return Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings Ratio) on the US stock market. We quantify the interaction...

We combine self-collected historical data from 1867 to 1907 with CRSP data from 1926 to 2012, to examine the risk and return over the past 140 years of one of the most popular mechanical trading strategies — momentum. We find that momentum has earned abnormally high risk-adjusted returns — a...

We show that firms' R&D activities can predict the stock returns of their industry peers. When an industry experiences substantial R&D growth driven by the activities of a small group of firms, industry peers experience positive abnormal returns and abnormal operating performance despite having...

We use a sample of option prices, and the method of Bakshi, Kapadia and Madan (2003), to estimate the ex ante higher moments of the underlying individual securities' risk-neutral returns distribution. We find that individual securities' volatility, skewness, and kurtosis are strongly related to...

This paper studies the predictability of stock returns using monthly data on eight markets over the period 1876-1913. In contrast to much of the existing literature I find broad predictability across stock markets. Market interest rates and seasonal dummies generally have predictive power, and...

We suggest using "realized volatility" as a volatility proxy to aid in model-based multivariate bond yield density forecasting. To do so, we develop a general estimation approach to incorporate volatility proxy information into dynamic factor models with stochastic volatility. The resulting...

We investigate the time-varying predictability of stock returns in a high-dimensional scenario by the proposed dynamic selection and combination (DSC) model that assumes the coefficients (or combination weights) of each predictor change over time. We also develop a particle filter with a...

Harvey, Liu, and Zhu (2016) “argue that most claimed research findings in financial economics are likely false.” Surprisingly, their false discovery rate (FDR) estimates suggest most are true. I revisit their results by developing non- and semi-parametric FDR estimators that account for...

We introduce a Nelson-Siegel type interest rate term structure model with the underlying yield factors following autoregressive processes revealing time-varying stochastic volatility. The factor volatilities capture risk inherent to the term structure and are associated with the time-varying...

We address whether analysts bias earnings forecast revisions and convey the bias using forecast revision consistency, i.e., the extent to which analyst reports with earnings forecast revisions include stock recommendation and target price revisions consistent in sign with the earnings forecast...