This paper introduces and examines an intriguing puzzle arising from the market’s persistent tendency to overestimate the trajectory of spot interest rates resulting in lucrative cumulative long-term returns for net zero investments. We introduce a new metric called the “Hairy” premium to...

We show that time variation in risk premia leads to time-varying idiosyncratic income risk for workers. Using US administrative data on worker earnings, we show that increases in risk premia lead to lower earnings for low-wage workers; these declines are primarily driven by job separations. By...

We develop a novel methodology to measure the risk premium of higher-order cumulants (closely related to the moments of a distribution) based on assets satisfying a single-factor setting. We show that single-factor linear pricing works only if the difference between physical and risk-neutral...

The market risk premium is central in finance, and has been analyzed by numerous studies in the time-series predictability literature and by growing studies in the options literature. In this paper, we provide a novel link between the two literatures. Theoretically, we derive a lower bound on...

Using a semi-supervised topic model on 7,000,000 New York Times articles spanning 160 years, we test whether topics of media discourse predict future stock and bond market returns to test rational and behavioral hypotheses about market valuation of disaster risk. Focusing on media discourse...

I incorporate the recursive utility into Pagel (2016)'s reference-dependent preference and study their aggregate implications in a consumption-based asset pricing model. In the case of recursive utility, the proposed model reproduces crucial asset pricing moments and time-varying risk premiums...

We evaluate whether machine learning methods can better model excess portfolio returns compared to the standard regression-based strategies generally used in the finance and econometric literature. We examine 17 benchmark factor model specifications based on Expected Utility Theory and theory...