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Real-Time Data Revisions and the PCE Measure of Inflation

Tierney, Heather L.R. - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2010

This paper tracks data revisions in the Personal Consumption Expenditure using the exclusions-from-core inflation …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008560957

Examining the Ability of Core Inflation to Capture the Overall Trend of Total Inflation

Tierney, Heather L.R. - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2009

This paper examines whether core inflation is able to predict the overall trend of total inflation using real-time data … measures of inflation, which are the personal consumption expenditure and the consumer price index, are used in the exclusions …-from core inflation persistence model. This paper finds that core inflation is only able to capture the overall trend of total …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008560970

The Future of Central Banking in the Changing Financial Environment

Tymoczko, Dobieslaw - Narodowy Bank Polski - 2005

During the last decades there were deep technology-driven changes in financial systems of many countries. The result was the decreasing demand for cash and commercial banks’ liquid reserves. The decreasing demand for central bank money has changed the operational side of the monetary policy....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008561052

Dollarization as a Signaling Device

Makarski, Krzysztof - Narodowy Bank Polski - 2009

The objective of this paper is to point out that dollarization, apart from being a commitment device, may also be used as a signaling device if there is uncertainty about the government’s intentions. To this end, we modify the standard approach to modeling monetary policy by introducing two...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008561056

On the Sources of Oil Price Fluctuations

Unalmis, Deren; Unalmis, Ibrahim; Unsal, D. Filiz - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2009

Analyzing macroeconomic impacts of oil price changes requires first to investigate different sources of these changes and their distinct effects. Kilian (2009) analyzes the effects of an oil supply shock, an aggregate demand shock, and a precautionary oil demand shock. The paper's aim is to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008561072

The Credit Channel and Monetary Transmission in Brazil and Chile: A Structured VAR Approach

Catão, Luis; Pagan, Adrian - National Centre for Econometric Research (NCER) - 2010

, notably the role of a bank-credit channel. We find that interest rate changes have swifter effects on output and inflation in … typical size of credit shocks to have large effects on output and inflation in the two economies, being stronger in Chile …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008562387

Determinacy and sunspots in a nonlinear monetary model

Cornaro, Alessandra; Agliari, Anna - Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche, … - 2010

In this paper we analyze a basic sticky price model with monopolistic competition and price stickiness à la Calvo. Starting by the relations describing a general economic equilibrium model (see Woodford in Interest and Prices, Foundations of a Theory of Monetary Policy, The MIT Press, 2003), as...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008562427

Is monetary policy really neutral in the long-run? Evidence for some emerging and developed economies

Nogueira, Reginaldo Pinto - In: Economics Bulletin 29 (2009) 3, pp. 2432-2437

The traditional economic theory suggests that changes in the money supply or in the interest rates can influence the business cycle, but not the long-run potential output. In other words, monetary policy is neutral over the long-run. In this paper we use some new developments in econometrics to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008562938

Predicting the direction of change in aggregate demand growth and its components

Baghestani, Hamid - In: Economics Bulletin 30 (2010) 1, pp. 292-302

In this study, we set up a framework to generate the forecasts of growth in aggregate demand and its components using real-time data. In general, these forecasts (for 1983-2008) accurately predict directional change under symmetric loss and are thus of value to a user who assigns similar cost...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008562952

Domestic and external factors in interest rate determination: the minor role of the exchange rate regime

Duburcq, Caroline; Girardin, Eric - In: Economics Bulletin 30 (2010) 1, pp. 624-635

We compare the behavior of short term interest rates in hard-peg and floating-exchange-rate countries. We use a framework which allows both domestic and foreign factors to play a role in the determination of interest rates and assess them empirically for eight Latin American countries between...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008563091