This paper provides the first thorough investigation of the negative weights that can emerge when combining forecasts. The usual practice in the literature is to ignore or trim negative weights, i.e., set them to zero. This default strategy has its merits, but it is not optimal. We study the...

This paper considers linear panel data models with a grouped pattern of heterogeneity when the latent group membership structure and/or the values of slope coefficients change at a break point. We propose a least squares approach to jointly estimate the break point, group membership structure,...

This papers offers a theoretical explanation for the stylized fact that forecast combinations with estimated optimal weights often perform poorly in applications. The properties of the forecast combination are typically derived under the assumption that the weights are fixed, while in practice...

A 'dress-up contest' is a competition for the best public image, and fiscal decentralisation can lead to such contests between local governments. In this paper we model the dress-up contest and investigate how it a effects social welfare. We show that yardstick competition (due to fiscal...

In specifying a regression equation, we need to determine which regressors to include, but also how these regressors are measured. This gives rise to two levels of uncertainty: concepts (level 1) and measurements within each concept (level 2). In this paper we propose a hierarchical weighted...

This papers offers a theoretical explanation for the stylized fact that forecast combinations with estimated optimal weights often perform poorly in applications. The properties of the forecast combination are typically derived under the assumption that the weights are fixed, while in practice...