This paper discusses the role of risk communication in macroprudential oversight and of visualization in risk communication. Beyond the soar in data availability and precision, the transition from firm-centric to system-wide supervision imposes vast data needs. Moreover, in addition to internal...

This paper is an attempt to identify robust lead indicators to serve as early warning signals for a currency crisis in India. The Signals approach of Kaminsky, Lizondo, and Reinhart (KLR) 1998 is used to identify the lead indicators, and Logistic Regression is used to verify for their...

The primary aim of this presentation is to introduce my new book "Low Latency Interest Rate Markets" and expose the reader to the theory and practice of interest rate markets. Interest rate markets exist to support government, corporate and project finance, however the financing of large-scale...

This paper develops a monitoring and forecasting model for the aggregate monthly number of commercial bank failures in the U.S. We extract key sectoral predictors from the large set of macroeconomic variables proposed by McCracken and Ng (2016) and incorporate them in a hurdle negative binomial...

Aim/purpose - The aim of this paper is to present two cases of crises in Greece and Italy and to evaluate the shadow exchange rates of hypothetical new currencies (re)introduced after Grexit and Italexit. Design/methodology/approach - Both shadow exchange rates are estimated using speculative...

Libor is arguably the world's most important number with more than USD 350 trillion of loans and financial contracts referencing this rate. Libor benchmark interest rates are being replaced with alternative reference rates (ARRs). There is no guarantee Libor rates will continue to be quoted...

Interest rate differentials between China and the rest of the world provide an attractive target for currency carry trade strategies, but remains problematic due to existing capital controls. We focus on copper holdings as an asset used to facilitate the carry trade. Using a unique dataset of...

In this PowerPoint presentation we give an overview of yield curves, show how they are modelled and calibrated and give a brief overview of LIBOR reform.Firstly we explain how to calibrate curves to imply forward rates & discount factors. Secondly, we outline the interpolation, optimization and...

In this paper we outline the Lagrangian constrained optimization method to solve complex problems subject to constraints. Firstly we summarize the Lagrangian constrained optimization routine. Secondly we outline a detailed implementation strategy. Thirdly and finally we provide example and solve...

Yield curves are used to imply the forward rates and discount factors from market tradable instruments and are required to discount future cash flows and evaluate the price of all financial contracts. Not all instruments can be included in the yield curve calibration or fitting process, hence we...