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Weather, the forgotten factor in business cycle analyses
Döhrn, Roland; Meulen, Philipp an de - 2015
In periods of unusual weather, forecasters face a problem of interpreting economic data: Which part goes back to the … underlying economic trend and which part arises from a special weather effect? In this paper, we discuss ways to disentangle … weather-related from business cycle-related influences on economic indicators. We find a significant influence of weather …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010473134
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Stochastic Seasonality, Contemporaneous Inference, and Forecasting in the Presence of Volatile Weather
Nickelsburg, Jerry - 2017
place, these methods are particularly important as weather patterns become more volatile …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012972987
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Markov switching with endogenous number of regimes and leading indicators in a real-time business cycle forecast : conference paper
Theobald, Thomas - 2013
This paper uses several macroeconomic and financial indicators within a Markov Switching (MS) framework to predict the turning points of the business cycle. The presented model is applied to monthly German real-time data covering the recession and the recovery after the financial crisis. We show...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010339952
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Model averaging in Markov-switching models : predicting national recessions with regional data
Guérin, Pierre; Leiva-Leon, Danilo - 2015
This paper introduces new weighting schemes for model averaging when one is interested in combining discrete forecasts from competing Markov-switching models. In particular, we extend two existing classes of combination schemes - Bayesian (static) model averaging and dynamic model averaging - so...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011285456
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Forecast errors and the macroeconomy : a non-linear relationship?
Fritsche, Ulrich; Döpke, Jörg - 2006 - This version: February 2006
The paper analyses reasons for departures from strong rationality of growth and inflation forecasts based on annual observations from 1963 to 2004. We rely on forecasts from the joint forecast of the so-called "six leading" forecasting institutions in Germany and argue that violations of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010426366
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Business tendency surveys and macroeconomic fluctuations
Kaufmann, Daniel; Scheufele, Rolf - 2015
We investigate the information content of business tendency surveys for key macroeconomic variables in Switzerland. To summarise the information of a large data set of sectoral business tendency surveys we extract a small number of common factors by a principal components estimator. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010508347
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Applying Shape and Phase Restrictions in Generalized Dynamic Categorical Models of the Business Cycle
Harding, Don - 2010
impose certain phase restrictions and permit multiple indexes. Theory suggests additional shape restrictions in the form of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013138566
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Model Averaging in Markov-Switching Models : Predicting National Recessions with Regional Data
Guerin, Pierre - 2017
This paper introduces new weighting schemes for model averaging when one is interested in combining discrete forecasts from competing Markov-switching models. In the empirical application, we forecast U.S. business cycle turning points with state-level employment data. We find that forecasts...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012950952
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Model Averaging in Markov-Switching Models : Predicting National Recessions with Regional Data
Guerin, Pierre - 2015
This paper introduces new weighting schemes for model averaging when one is interested in combining discrete forecasts from competing Markov-switching models. In particular, we extend two existing classes of combination schemes – Bayesian (static) model averaging and dynamic model averaging...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013011832
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Identification and Real-Time Forecasting of Norwegian Business Cycles
Aastveit, Knut Are - 2015
We define and forecast classical business cycle turning points for the Norwegian economy. When defining reference business cycles, we compare a univariate and a multivariate Bry-Boschan approach with univariate Markov-switching models and Markov-switching factor models. On the basis of a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013021261