This study develops a model for predicting distress events among large banks. We conjecture that a bailout possibility induces different behaviors among small and large banks and therefore separate models may be need for early warning models. We indeed find that a failure prediction model for...

On 16th November 2009, SUERF, CEPS and the Belgian Financial Forum coorganized a conference "Crisis management at cross-roads" in Brussels. All papers in the present volume are based on contributions at the conference and the SUERF Annual Lecture which followed the event.

This paper contributes to the debate on liquidity in resolution by providing a quantitative assessment of liquidity gaps of banks in resolution in the euro area. It estimates possible ranges of liquidity gaps for significant banks under different assumptions and scenarios. The findings suggest...

We examine banking regulation in a macroeconomic model of bank runs. We construct a general equilibrium model where banks may default because of fundamental or self-fulfilling runs. With only fundamental defaults, we show that the competitive equilibrium is constrained efficient. However, when...

Russian banks have been strongly influenced by the worldwide financial crisis which started in the second half of 2008. This was caused by a combination of domestic, regional and international factors. We estimate an early warning model for the Russian crisis. We identified 47 Russian banks...

The banking system is highly interconnected and these connections can be conveniently represented as an interbank network. This survey presents a systematic overview of the recent advances in the theoretical literature on interbank networks. We assess our current understanding of the structure...

The cross holding of interbank deposits represents an optimal ex-ante co-insurance arrangement whenever the uncertainty concerning banks' liquidity needs is idiosyncratic and imperfectly correlated. When a shock to aggregate liquidity demand occurs, however, such an arrangement could be...

Purpose – We analyse the importance of regulatory requirements and interbank connections to financial stability by looking at a large number of European and UK banks.Design/Methodology – We model interbank contagion using insights from the Susceptible Infected Recovered model. We construct...

To date, macroprudential policy inspired by the Basel III package is applied irrespective of the network characteristics of the banking system. We study how the implementation of macroprudential policy in the form of additional capital requirements conditional to systemic-risk measures of banks...