We construct synthetic, tradable risk factors (e.g., tradable HML and MOM) and individual factor legs (e.g., growth and value) using optimal combinations of large and liquid mutual funds and ETFs based on their holdings. We show that a large fraction of existing smart beta funds are simply...

We develop a new approach to modeling dynamics in cash flow data extracted from daily firm-level dividend announcements. We decompose daily cash flow news into a persistent component, jumps, and temporary shocks. Empirically, we find that the persistent cash flow component is a highly...

We document lead-lag effects in stock returns between co-headquartered firms operating in different sectors. Such geographic lead-lags yield risk-adjusted returns of 5-6% per year, about half that observed for industry lead-lag effects. However, while industry lead-lag effects are strongest...

In this paper I show that information about fundamentals of the aggregate economy derived from closely held firms help predict stock returns. I construct a new economy-wide dividend price ratio that takes into account dividends and market capitalization of both listed (public) and non-listed...

The outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic massively increased uncertainty about firms’ cash flows and their access to financial markets. We examine its effect on firms’ strategies for preserving cash by suspending dividends and buybacks and raising new funds through bond and equity issues. We...

We examine the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on firms' decisions to suspend dividends and estimate a model that quantifies the effect of suspensions on growth in aggregate dividends. Our estimates show that dividend suspensions had a large impact on expected future dividend growth and also...