We propose a novel method to estimate risk-neutral quantiles that uses sorting to minimize an objective function given by a convex combination of call and put option prices over the range of available strike prices. We demonstrate that this new method significantly improves the accuracy of...

This paper studies the intertemporal relation between U.S. volatility risk and international equity risk premia. We show that a common volatility risk factor constructed from the option-implied U.S. forward variances positively and significantly predicts future stock market returns of the...

This paper investigates the performance of a factor-augmented regression (FAR) model with a mixture of stationary and nonstationary factors in stock return prediction. For comparison purpose, we also consider a traditional FAR model with only stationary factors. In an application with a dataset...

I provide evidence that risks in macroeconomic fundamentals contain valuable information about bond risk premia. I extract factors from a set of quantile-based risk measures estimated for US macroeconomic variables and document that they account for up to 31% of the variation in excess bond...

We propose a theoretical measure of income hedging demand and show that it affects asset prices. We focus on the value factor and first demonstrate that our demand estimates are correlated with the actual demands of retail and mutual fund investors. Then, we show that the aggregate HML demand...

This paper investigates the predictive ability of international volatility risk for the daily aggregate Chinese stock market returns. We employ the innovations in implied volatility indices of seven major international markets as our international volatility risk proxies. We find that...

We reaffirm the stylized fact that bond risk premia are time-varying with macroeconomic condition, even with real-time macro data instead of commonly used final revised data. While real-time data are noisier and render standard forecasts insignificant, we find that, with four efficient...

This study exploits information contained in high frequency sample data by computing higher realized moments of individual firms in the emerging stock market of Pakistan. Furthermore, the relation of higher moments with future stock returns is examined by constructing decile portfolios based on...