In this article, we present a forecast of the 2010 midterm House election based on information available in early July 2010. We combine this forecast with a note of caution, explaining why electoral circumstances might lead our forecast to err. Finally, we present guidance regarding how to...

Election markets have been praised for their ability to forecast election outcomes, and to forecast better than trial-heat polls. This paper challenges that optimistic assessment of election markets, based on an analysis of Iowa Electronic Market (IEM) data from presidential elections between...

This analysis focuses on estimation difficulties pollsters had in the primaries in 2008 in light of recent trends in improved polling accuracy in general elections. We consider the series of polls that were conducted in New Hampshire and other states holding primaries, looking at how the...

Everybody knows that "the economy" matters in presidential elections, but how can one incorporate economic information in an early forecasting equation? Our economic forecasting tool is the cumulative growth of leading indicators during a presidential term--weighting recent growth most...

One little-noted requirement for the proper functioning of democratic institutions is public responsiveness to policy. A responsive public would adjust its preference for `more' or `less' policy in reaction to what policy-makers do. In this article we set out a theoretical model of how the...