This paper examines the efficiency of the forward yen/dollar market using micro survey data. Conventional tests of unbiasedness do not correspond directly to the zero-profit condition. Instead, we use the survey data to calculate potential profits of individual forecasters based on a natural...

Any lead-lag effect in an asset pair implies the future returns on the lagging asset have the potential to be predicted from past and present prices of the leader, thus creating statistical arbitrage opportunities. We utilize robust lead-lag indicators to uncover the origin of price discovery...

Empirical evidences in the literature seem not consistent about market efficiency, even for the same market. As some studies consistently accept the existence of efficiency and some reveal rejecting the efficient market hypothesis within the same markets investigated, this paper attempts to...

On several occasions technical analysis rules have been shown to have predictive power. The main purpose of this work is to decompose the predictive power of the moving average trading rule and isolate the portion that could be attributed to the possible exploitation of linear and non linear...

This study analyzes information production and trading behavior of banks with lending relationships. We combine trade-by-trade supervisory data and credit-registry data to examine banks' proprietary trading in borrower stocks around a large number of corporate events. We find that relationship...

We build a parsimonious agent-based model under the adaptive market hypothesis (AMH), which can explain the formation of equilibrium prices and market efficiency dynamics. Our model combines heterogeneous interacting agents, switching behavior, and investor feedback on past realized returns,...

A linear return generating model is introduced. This model is a generalization in discrete time of the differential equation describing dynamical systems in continuous time. The model is useful in its own right, as it provides a simplified, yet credible, quantitative description of the reality....

We examine the real effects of stock market efficiency by analyzing how noise in stock prices affects the efficiency of capital allocation. Using data from 42 countries and a long time-series, we find that the efficiency of capital allocation across firms (the sensitivity of corporate investment...

In this paper, we explore whether the adaptive markets hypothesis (AMH) describes the efficiency of the Finnish stock market better than the efficient markets hypothesis (EMH) does. Building on this, we also test how small market size and market liberalisation impact the efficiency of the...

Stock markets, just like other sectors of businesses have been impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. COVID-19 has caused things to change in some sort; behavior, culture, and economy. Investors’ behavior and expectations may have been shaken. Huge stock market dislocations may have occurred as...