Valuation-based market timing demonstrates strong potential to improve risk-adjusted returns for conservative long-term investors. Such timing strategies based on the cyclically-adjusted price-earnings ratio provide comparable returns as a 100 percent stocks buy-and-hold strategy but with...

While most everyone would agree that valuations matter, the question remains as to whether clients with a long-term outlook (such as those planning for retirement) can hope to act successfully on information about valuations. This article provides favorable evidence based on the historical...

We measure investors' short- and long-term stock-return expectations using both options and survey data. These expectations at different horizons reveal what investors think their own short-term expectations will be in the future, or forward return expectations. While contemporaneous short-term...

In this paper I study the relationship between rationality and asset prices when agents have heterogeneous and incorrect beliefs about future events. Using the fully rational pricing as a benchmark, I show that when agents behave according to the Subjective Generalized Kelly rule (Bottazzi et...

We survey the nascent literature on machine learning in the study of financial markets. We highlight the best examples of what this line of research has to offer and recommend promising directions for future research. This survey is designed for both financial economists interested in grasping...

Factorial moments are convenient tools in nuclear physics to characterize the multiplicity distributions when phase-space resolution (Delta) becomes small. For uncorrelated particle production within Delta, Gaussian statistics holds and factorial moments Fq are equal to unity for all orders q....

Classical quantitative finance models such as the Geometric Brownian Motion or its later extensions such as local or stochastic volatility models do not make sense when seen from a physics-based perspective, as they are all equivalent to a negative mass oscillator with a noise. This paper...

In this paper, I develop a model in which risk-averse investors possess private information regarding both a stock's expected payoff and its risk. These investors trade in the stock and a derivative whose payoff is driven by the stock's risk. In equilibrium, the derivative is used to speculate...

Valuation-based market timing demonstrates greater potential to improve risk-adjusted returns for conservative long-term investors than given credit by Fisher and Statman (2006). On a risk-adjusted basis, market-timing strategies provide comparable returns as a 100 percent stocks buy-and-hold...

Focusing on a “safe withdrawal rate” and then deriving a “wealth accumulation target” to achieve by the retirement date may not be the best way to approach retirement planning. Such a formulation isolates the working (accumulation) and retirement (decumulation) phases. When considered...