An age-old issue is how inquiry and action can reciprocally contribute to transforming existing into preferred conditions. Leading scholars of a recent generation repeatedly addressed this general issue in human affairs. Herbert Simon's major proposal was to develop design-oriented sciences or,...

This article raises several issues regarding the valuation and disclosure of pension commitments, quasi-commitments, and guarantees. We all know that the annual process of budgetary decision-making is prone to myopia and to tunnel vision. The long-term consequences of fiscal commitments are...

In recent years, scholars have developed new analytical tools and financial instruments that could help governments cope more effectively with financial volatility. In this essay we show how states can achieve fiscal sustainability using financial instruments based upon mean-variance analysis:...

In recent years, scholars have developed new analytical tools and financial instruments that could help governments cope more effectively with financial volatility. In this essay we show how states can achieve fiscal sustainability using financial instruments based upon mean-variance analysis:...

Budget policymakers should focus on expected revenue growth (average growth over history) and on the risk or volatility around that average. It makes sense to think about this risk as having two components purely random risk unrelated to the economy and risk associated with an economy that is...

Accurately predicting revenue growth is nearly impossible. Predicting the peaks and valleys of the business cycle is even more hopeless. This matters because tax revenues are largely driven by economic growth. Volatile, unpredictable revenue growth causes all sorts of unpleasant responses on the...

Private enterprises should be concerned with maximizing productivity. Government should be concerned with minimizing risk, perhaps subject to a cost or productivity constraint. Value creation in government ought to strive for consistency, coherency, and transparency. Achieving consistency and...

A lot of people agree about what needs to be done to fix Oregon's state finances, the real question is how? The surprising answer is that there is a fairly simple, cheap solution. The first step is to take the sales tax off the table. The second step is to take very seriously the proposal put...