As some recent studies have shown empirically, future gold price fluctuations are especially difficult to forecast. Against this background, this study evaluates the forecasting power of three methods that have been applied successfully in a stock market prediction context: 1) technical...

The predictability of stock returns has always been one of the core research questions in finance. This paper attempts to introduce machine learning method to answer whether stock returns are predictable in China. With 108 characteristics data in Chinese stock market from January 1997 to...

This study examines the adaptive market hypothesis of the S&P500, FTSE100, NIKKEI225 and EURO STOXX 50 by testing for stock return predictability using daily data from January 1990 to May 2014. We apply three bootstrapped versions of the variance ratio test to the raw stock returns and also...

Optimal investment of firms implies that expected stock returns are tied with the expected marginal benefit of investment divided by the marginal cost of investment. Winners have higher expected growth and expected marginal productivity (two major components of the marginal benefit of...

We offer an investment-based interpretation of price and earnings momentum. The neoclassical theory of investment implies that expected stock returns are tied with the expected marginal benefit of investment divided by the marginal cost of investment. Winners have higher expected growth and...

This study demonstrates that stocks with low book-to-market ratios, also known as glamour stocks, have significantly more positive skewness in their return distributions compared to the return distributions of value stocks with high book-tomarket ratios. The premium (discount) investors apply to...

Almost all studies on research and development (R&D) activity are based on US and British companies, and most of them show that this activity positively influences both stock returns and corporate value. This empirical study evaluates the effects of R&D on stock returns for a sample of listed...

The sensitivity of stock valuations to expected earnings growth, termed as the growth premium, fluctuates substantially over time. This study empirically investigates whether these fluctuations can be explained by investor sentiment. The testable prediction is that investor sentiment affects the...

We examine the out-of-sample performance of 240 stock market anomalies enhanced by 49 machine learning algorithms and over 260 individually trained models across an international data sample of nearly 1.9 billion stock-month-anomaly observations from 1980 to 2019. We demonstrate significant...

This paper documents that the payoffs from investing in growth stocks, as measured by the decile-rank distributions (DRD) of future revenues, earnings, investment, as well as stock returns, follow a bimodal U-shaped distribution. By contrast, the DRD of value stocks follow a traditional...