This paper introduces a new technique to infer the risk-neutral probability distribution of an asset from the prices of options on this asset. The technique is based on using the trading volume of each option as a proxy of the informativeness of the option. Not requiring the implied probability...

A discrete time model of a financial market is considered. We focus on the study of a guaranteed profit of an investor which arises when the stock price jumps are bounded. The limit distribution of the profit as the model becomes closer to the classical model of the geometric Brownian motion is...

A discrete time model of financial markets is considered. It is assumed that the stock price evolution is described by a homogeneous Markov chain. In the focus of attention is the expected value of the guaranteed profit of the investor that arises when the jumps of the stock price are bounded....

A discrete time model of financial markets is considered. It is assumed that the relative jumps of the risky security price are independent non-identically distributed random variables. In the focus of attention is the expected non-risky profit of the investor that arises when the jumps of the...

This paper is devoted to the problem of hedging contingent claims in the framework of a complete two-factor jump-diffusion model. In this context, it is well understood that every contingent claim can be hedged perfectly if one invests the unique arbitrage-free price. Based on the results of H....

Many studies have documented that daily realized volatility estimates based on intraday returns provide volatility forecasts that are superior to forecasts constructed from daily returns only. We investigate whether these forecasting improvements translate into economic value added. To do so we...

This paper determines the value of asset tradeability in an option pricing framework. In our model, tradeability is valuable since it allows investors to exploit temporary mis-pricings of stocks. The model delivers several novel insights on the value of tradeability: The value of tradeability is...

The credit valuation adjustment (CVA) of OTC derivatives is an important part of the Basel III credit risk capital requirements and current accounting rules. Its calculation is not an easy task - not only it is necessary to model the future value of the derivative, but also the probability of...

Given bid-offer quotes for a set of listed vanilla options, a fundamental need of option market makers is to interpolate and extrapolate the available quotes to a full arbitrage-free surface. We propose a methodology which directly controls the trade-off between smoothness and bid-offer...

I introduce dynamic option trading and non-linear views into the classical portfolio selection problem. The optimal dynamic option portfolio is characterized explicitly in terms of its expected sensitivities (Greeks) and the role of the mean-variance effi cient portfolio is played by the "Greek...