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Since the last recession, it is usually argued that older workers are less affected by the economic downturn because their unemployment rate rose less than the one of prime-age workers. This view is a myth: older workers are more sensitive to the business cycle. We document volatilities of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010339640
firms can observe each other's decisions, they are able to increase the accuracy of their actions. While reducing volatility … at the individual level, social learning may lead to an increase in volatility at the aggregate level depending on the … network topology. Moreover, if the network is very asymmetric, aggregate volatility does not decay as predicted by the law of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011489440
Stylized facts suggest that output volatility in OECD countries has declined in recent years. However, the causes and … structural breaks in the dynamics and the volatility of the real output process in Germany can be detected. We report evidence … that output volatility has declined in Germany. Yet, this decline in output volatility is not as clear-cut as it is in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011475861
This paper connects two salient economic features: (i) Fiscal shocks have asymmetric effects across business cycle phases (Gechert et al., 2019); (ii) Okun's coefficient is time varying and may be unstable. The intertwined dynamic behavior of fiscal shocks and unemployment-output trade-offs are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012054782
We investigate the sources of the great changes in GDP volatility observed from 1966 to 2000. We develop a general …-sectoral linkages and households' behavior to aggregate volatility. Our results show that changes in sectoral volatility played an … important role in shaping volatility at the aggregate level. Moreover, asymmetries in the economic structure sometimes had an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011921976
paper offers a solution to this disagreement, suggesting that volatility carries a positive direct effect, but also a … volatility is then ambiguous. The paper reveals the underlying endogeneity of government size in a balanced panel of 95 countries … increase of volatility lowers growth by up to 0.57 percentage points in a democracy, but raises growth by 1.74 percentage …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010228789
This paper applies volatility measures and VAR spectral analytic techniques to give a thorough description of the ….The central findings are summarized with regard to (i) national product share, contribution-to-variance and volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011408998
The recent plunge in oil prices has brought into question the generally accepted view that lower oil prices are good for the US and the global economy. In this paper, using a quarterly multi-country econometric model, we first show that a fall in oil prices tends relatively quickly to lower...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011502542
uncertainty is proxied by the (unobserved) volatility of the structural shocks, and a regime change occurs whenever credit …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010472852
volatility — which are based on the maximum and minimum stock prices within a month. Good (bad) volatility is associated with … that (1) output, employment, and stock price plummet rapidly in response to a bad volatility shock, while their responses … to a good volatility shock are modest, and (2) bad volatility shocks explain the bulk of economic activity and stock …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012900449