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volatility of US and UK GDP growth appears to have become increasingly correlated in the recent past. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011554403
We use a factor model with stochastic volatility to decompose the time-varying variance of Macro economic and Financial … component plays an important role in driving the time-varying volatility of nominal and financial variables. The cross …-country co-movement in volatility of real and financial variables has increased over time with the common component becoming more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011306276
This paper shows that the parsimoniously time-varying methodology of Callot and Kristensen (2015) can be applied to factor models. We apply this method to study macroeconomic instability in the US from 1959:1 to 2006:4 with a particular focus on the Great Moderation. Models with parsimoniously...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010532582
We leverage a data rich environment to construct and study a measure of macroeconomic uncertainty for the Korean economy. We provide several stylized facts about uncertainty in Korea from 1991M10-2016M5. We compare and contrast this measure of uncertainty with two other popular uncertainty...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011710042
We build a dynamic factor model with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility and use it to decompose the … common global uncertainty plays a primary role in explaining the volatility of inflation, interest rates and stock prices …, although to a varying extent over time. Region-specific uncertainty drives most of the exchange rate volatility for all Euro …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011856363
We estimate a nonlinear VAR to quantify the impact of economic policy uncertainty shocks originating in the US on the Canadian unemployment rate in booms and busts. We find strong evidence in favor of asymmetric spillover effects. Unemployment in Canada is shown to react to uncertainty shocks in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011862894
We develop a dynamic factor model with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility, estimate it with several … findings, the estimates suggest that global uncertainty plays a primary role in explaining the volatility of inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011904508
allow for low-frequency variation in the volatility of the shocks, and 2) the estimated degrees of freedom are quite low for … exclude the Great Recession from the sample. We also show that inference about low-frequency changes in volatility - and, in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010219714
This paper investigates if the impact of uncertainty shocks on the US economy has changed over time. To this end, we develop an extended Factor Augmented VAR model that simultaneously allows the estimation of a measure of uncertainty and its time-varying impact on a range of variables. We find...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010472799
We show that two models of the labor market, a Walrasian model and a labor contracting model, both have an approximate dynamic factor structure. We use this result to motivate our empirical approach to estimating the cyclical properties of real wages, which does not impose any structure between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003746900