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The paper is aimed at making comparative analysis of main market risk features based on the copula-modeling and on the traditional approach which neglects the asymmetry and the fat tails of interest rates joint multivariate distribution. R software is used for practical implementation of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009018558
answers at these two problems and proposes a general two-steps procedure. The …rst step relies on …tting the discount bond …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008793692
Traditional …financial theory predicts that comovement in asset returns is due to fundamentals. An alternative view is that of Barberis and Shleifer (2003) and Bar- beris, Shleifer and Wurgler (2005) who propose a sentiment based theory of comovement, delinking it from fundamentals. In their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008793727
This paper proposes a new structural-break vector autoregressive (VAR) model for predicting real output growth by the nominal yield curve information. We allow for the possibility of both in-sample and out-of-sample breaks in parameter values and use information in historical regimes to make...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008805826
This paper presents a dynamic equilibrium model of bond markets in which two groups of agents hold heterogeneous … price volatility and contributes to the time variation in bond premia. Our model shows that a modest amount of heterogeneous … expectation can help explain several puzzling phenomena, including the "excessive volatility" of bond yields, the failure of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008854001
We analyse the emerging Serbian bond market to compare its behaviour to developed markets and to indicate what is … behind bond market emergence. As an analytical tool we model the term structure of the bond market. We find that a modified …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011147490
.e., perfectly correlated with) model-implied bond yields. However, this theoretical implication appears inconsistent with … regressions showing that much macroeconomic variation is unspanned and that the unspanned variation helps forecast excess bond …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011155372
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011168848
This paper estimates a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model in small open economies using the yield curve data as well as standard macro data. The DSGE model is estimated on the data of three inflation-targeting small open economies (Australia, Canada, and New...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011170306
constraint, and positive net supply of government bonds. Uninsured idiosyncratic shocks generate bond trades, while aggregate … unfavourable terms implies that a greater bond supply raises the level of the yield curve, while an increase in the relative supply …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011043037