An OLS and probit framework is used to examine the predictive power of yield spreads with respect to GDP growth and recessions in the Eurozone from the 1990s to the recent past. Credit default swap (CDS) data on sovereign bonds, which provide a direct measure of default risk, are employed as...

Purpose – The purpose of this research is to develop and test a mathematical method of deriving zero yield curve from market prices of government bonds. Design/methodology/approach – The method is based on a forward curve approximated by a linear (or piecewise constant) spline and should be...

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to examine the pertinence of combining the positioning along the US presidential election cycle and the inversions of the yield curve as a guide for a market timing strategy on the S&P 500. These variables provide warning signals for either an abnormally...