This study applies a multi-country partial equilibrium model to assess the impact of tariff elimination on Canadian canola products by the European Union, and compares the composition of Canadian canola product exports to the EU, which practices tariff escalation, to exports to the United...

This note develops four alternative estimates of the trade-related impacts of the United Kingdom seceding from the European Union. We contrast two basic scenarios: an exit that re-sets the UK's relationship with the rest of the EU to a WTO-rules most favoured nation basis (“Brexit”), versus...

We assess the outcomes for the negotiating parties in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) if the TPP11 go ahead with the agreement as negotiated without the United States, as compared to the outcomes under the TPP12 agreement as signed in October 2016. Both the TPP11 and TPP12 are assessed on...

The consensus economic policy framework that evolved in the post-Bretton Woods era and the model of globalization to which it gave rise are in crisis due to political blowback. The framework has guided the system into a solution space that features stagnant growth and persistent deflationary...

This note seeks to shed light on how economies develop by reconciling the apparent conflict between diversification and specialization as the path to development, and alternative conceptions of an economy as an equilibrium system of optimizing agents versus a driven system dependent on...

This note develops estimates of the trade-related costs of an exit by the United Kingdom from the European Union and compares these to the potential benefits of the alternative trade policies to which a fully independent UK would have access. An exit scenario that re-sets the UK's relationship...

This article reviews the key industrial policy issue areas under negotiation in the mega-free trade agreements and evaluates the likely developments flowing from these agreements in terms of their impact on the international trading system. Based on this review, it discusses the likely future...

This paper develops a new version of the GTAP database in which Canada is replaced by its provinces in order to allow the analysis of international trade agreements at a subnational level. The methodology in effect treats the individual provinces as separate trading entities, much like the...

Small enterprises are underrepresented in international trade, and have not traditionally been the focus of trade negotiations. However, Internet technology is changing the conditions for international trade, decreasing the negative effect of distance and thereby enabling small enterprises to...

Taiwan has indicated its interest in joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement. In this report, we evaluate the implications of Taiwan's accession for the United States to inform the negotiation process. We consider the sectoral export prospects for U.S. industry and provide estimates of...