Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. SOME HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE -- III. SIMPLE ANALYTICS OF GLOBAL INTEREST RATE DETERMINATION -- IV. AN ASSET-PRICING PERSPECTIVE -- V. ECONOMETRIC EVIDENCE -- VI. CONCLUSIONS -- APPENDIX I. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK -- REFERENCES.

This paper looks at the dramatic decline in global real interest rates in recent years from a historical perspective and examines the various factors that may account for this trend. We show that current levels of real interest rates on long-term bonds in advanced economies are not low by...